Setor externo e crescimento na Colômbia, 1986-2016
uma abordagem de crescimento restrito à balança de pagamentos
Resumo
Neste estudo, são estimadas as elasticidades da renda e dos preços no comércio exterior e sua aplicação prática no modelo de crescimento econômico multissetorial de Thirlwall para seis dos principais parceiros comerciais da Colômbia entre 1986 e 2016. Com o uso de modelos de correção de erros, podemos fornecer as estimativas de elasticidades. Os resultados mostram que a Colômbia tem uma elasticidade de renda de longo prazo das exportações que é mais elástica do que as importações e do que a elasticidade de preços das importações e exportações.
Concluímos que a melhor política para promover o crescimento econômico da Colômbia é impulsionar as exportações; a taxa de câmbio não representa uma forte influência e os benefícios do setor externo dependem do parceiro comercial, pelo menos com os países do estudo. A estimativa empírica da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial mostra que as restrições da balança de pagamentos dependem da taxa de crescimento das exportações e determinam a taxa de crescimento da economia colombiana.
Downloads
Referências
Algieri, B., y Bracke, T. (2007) Patterns of Current Account Adjustment - Insights from Past Experience. ECB Working Paper 762. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.989726
Araujo, R. A., y Lima, G. T. (2007). A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach to Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 31, 755-774. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bem006
Cimoli, M. et al. (2009). Structural Change and the BOP-Constraint: Why did Latin America fail to converge? Cambridge Journal of Economics, forthcoming. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/ben060
DANE (2020). Encuesta anual manufacturera (EAM). Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadisticas. https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/industria/encuestaanual-manufacturera-enam.
Engle, R. y Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation,Estimation, and Testing. Econométrica, 55(2), 251-276. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913236 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Gafar, J. (1995). Some estimates of the price and income elasticities of import demand for three Caribbean countries, Applied Economics, 27(11), 1045-1048. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849500000087
Gouvea, R. R., y Lima, G. T. (2010). Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law. Journal of Post Keynesian. Economics, 33(1), 169-204. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20798386 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2753/PKE0160-3477330109
Gouvea, R. R., y Lima, G. T. (2013). Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth in a Multisectorial Framework: a panel data investigation. Journal of Economic Studies (Bradford), 40, 240- 254. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581311283691
Guilherme R. y Landreth McCombie, J. S. (2016) Impacts Of Developing Countries Growth On Natural Resource Exporters: A Bop Constrained Growth Model. Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 097, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. https://ideas.repec.org/p/anp/en2015/097.html
Hernández, J. N. (2005). Demanda de importaciones para el caso colombiano: 1980-2004. En Banco de la República. Banco de la República, Subgerencia de estudios económicos, Departamento de Programación e Inflación. https://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra356anterior.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.356
Houthakker, H. S., y Magee, S. P. (1969). Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 51(2), 111-125. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1926720
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
Johansen, S., y Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration- with Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
McCombie, J. (1997). On the Empirics of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 19(3), 345-375. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.1997.11490116
McCombie, J. S. L. (1993). Economic Growth, Trade Interlinkages, and the Balance-of-Payments-Constraint. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 15(4), 471-505. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4538361. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.1993.11489956
Misas, M., Ramírez, T., y Silva, L. (2001). Exportaciones no tradicionales en Colombia y sus determinantes. Borradores de Economia 178. Banco de la Republica de Colombia. https://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra178.pdf. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.178
Nell, K. (2003). A Generalized Version of the Balance-of-Payments Growth Model: an application to neighbouring regions. International Review of Applied Economics, 17(3), 249-267. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/0269217032000090478
Nilsson, L. (2002). Trading relations: is the roadmap from Lomé to Cotonou correct? Applied Economics 34, 439-452. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110046007
Nilsson, L. (2007). Comparative Effects of EU and US trade policies on developing country Exports, [Ebook]. En Y. Bourdet, J. Gullstrand, K. Olofsdotter (eds.) The European Union and Developing Countries: Trade, Aid and Growth in an integrating world. https://books.google.com.co/books?hl=es&lr=&id=Oj0mcpAlG4cC&oi=fnd&pg=PA49& dq=Nilsson+L.+(2005).+Comparative+Effects+of+EU+and+US+trade+policies+on+deve loping+country+Exports,+Brussels:&ots=c9MDNPnC3P&sig=lAFuHpFF9B65prb3CVVWw_Hh28M#v=onepage&q&f=fale
Orcutt, G. H. (1950). Measurement of Price Elasticities in International Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 32(2), 117-132. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1927649
Palley T. (2003). Pitfalls in the Theory of Growth: An application to the balance of payments constrained growth model, Review of Political Economy, 15(1), 75-84. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09538250308441
Pesaran, M. H., y Shin, Y. (1995). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. En S. Strøm (ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (pp. 371-413). Cambridge University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. y Smith, R. J. (1996). Testing for the Existence of a Long-run Relationship. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/9622.html
Phillips, P., y Bruce E. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99- 125. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545
Ramírez, J., y Flórez, M. (2017). Elasticidades ingreso y precios de las exportaciones no tradicionales en Colombia 1991-2015. https://colaboracion.dnp.gov.co/CDT/Estudios%20Econmicos/456.pdf
Romero, J. P., y McCombie, J. S. L. (2016). The Multi-Sectorial Thirlwall's Law: evidence from 14 developed European countries using product-level data. International Review of Applied Economics, 30, 301-325. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2015.1102207
Senhadji, A., y Montenegro, C. (1999). Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis. IMF Staff Papers, 46(3), 259-272. https://www.imf.org/external/Pubs/FT/staffp/1999/09-99/pdf/senhadji.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.882723
Thirlwall, A. P. (1979). The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rate differences, Banca Nazionale Del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 128, 45-53. https://ideas.repec.org/a/psl/bnlaqr/197901.html
Thirlwall, A.P. (2012). Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview. En E. Soukiazis, P.A. Cerqueira, (eds) Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (pp. 11-49). Palgrave Macmillan. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137023957_2
Zuccardi, I. (2002). Demanda por importaciones en Colombia: una estimación. Desarrollo y Sociedad, 49, 129-154. https://revistas.uniandes.edu.co/doi/pdf/10.13043/dys.49
Copyright (c) 2022 Revista de Relaciones Internacionales, Estrategia y Seguridad
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.