Dificuldade financeira e desempenho de mercado de organizações latino-americanas
Resumo
A dificuldade financeira está presente em diversos estudos na literatura, porém notam-se maiores discussões em torno de seus determinantes, como o indicador, sem constatar seu efeito para o mercado. Em virtude da importância de poder ser utilizado para verificar a continuidade da organização, o objetivo deste trabalho é identificar as influências da dificuldade financeira sobre o desempenho de mercado em empresas latino-americanas negociadas na bolsa de valores. De acordo com a hipótese do mercado eficiente e da sinalização, a dificuldade financeira anuncia ao mercado uma perspectiva negativa que afeta o desempenho de mercado. Assim, para a análise, utilizou-se de dados referentes às empresas listadas nas bolsas da Argentina, do Brasil, do Chile, do México e do Peru, de forma trimestral entre 2013 e 2017. Os resultados demonstram que, nos contex- tos brasileiro, chileno e mexicano, a dificuldade financeira influencia negativamente o desempenho de mercado das companhias. Este estudo contribui para a literatura com a utilização da dificuldade financeira além de um indicador preditor, pois apresenta uma informação que pode ser trabalhada por stakeholders no momento de negociar ou realizar a manutenção de seu portfólio de ações.
Downloads
Referências
Al-Hadi, A., Chatterjee, B., Yaftian, A., Taylor, G. e Mon- zur Hasan, M. (2017). Corporate social responsibility performance, financial distress and firm life cycle: Evidence from Australia. Accounting & Finance, 59(2), 961-989. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12277
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analy- sis and the prediction of corporate bankrupty. The Journal of Finance, XXIII(4), 589-609.
Altman, E. I. e Hotchkiss, E. (2010). Corporate financial distress and bankruptcy: Predict and avoid bankrupt- cy, analyze and invest in distressed debt. Nova Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.
Andrade, G. e Kaplan, S. N. (1998). How costly is fi- nancial (not economic) distress? Evidence from highly leveraged transactions that became Dis- tressed. The Journal of Finance 53(5), 1443-1493. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00062
Asquith, P., Gertner, R. e Scharfstein, D. (1994). Anatomy of Financial Distress an examination of junk-bond is- suers. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(3), 625-658.
Bae, J. K. (2012). Predicting financial distress of the South Korean manufacturing industries. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(10), 9159-9165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.02.058
Balcaen, S. e Ooghe, H. (2006). 35 years of studies on business failure: An overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related pro- blems. British Accounting Review, 38(1), 63-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2005.09.001
Bastos, D. D., Nakamura, W. T. e Basso, L. F. C. (2009). Determinantes da estrutura de capital das companhias abertas na América Latina: um estudo empírico con- siderando fatores macroeconômicos e institucionais. Ram — Revista de Administração Mackenzie, 9(6), 47- 77. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1678-69712009000600005
Batten, J. A., Gannon, G. L. e Thuraisamy, K. S. (2017). Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin America. Journal of Banking & Finance, 77, 328- 350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.07.011
Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4, 71-111.
Brenes, E. R., Camacho, A. R., Ciravegna, L. e Pichardo, C. A. (2016). Strategy and innovation in emerging econo- mies after the end of the commodity boom — Insights from Latin America. Journal of Business Research, 69, 4363-4367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2016.03.059
Bunn, P. e Redwood, V. (2003). Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability. Bank of England. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.598276
Chang, H. H. e Wong, K. H. (2010). Adoption of e-procurement and participation of e-marketpla- ce on firm performance: Trust as a moderator. Information and Management, 47(5-6), 262-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.im.2010.05.002
Chatziantoniou, I., Duffy, D. e Filis, G. (2013). Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Mul- ti-country evidence. Economic Modelling, 30(1), 754- 769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.10.005
Cuervo-Cazurra, A. (2008). The multinationalization of developing country MNEs: The case of multilatinas. Journal of International Management, 14, 138-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intman.2007.09.001
Errunza, V. (2001). Foreign portfolio equity investments, financial liberalization, and economic development. Review of International Economics, 9(4), 703-726. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00308
Fallahpour, S., Lakvan, E. N. e Zadeh, M. H. (2017). Using an ensemble classifier based on sequential floating fo- rward selection for financial distress prediction pro- blem. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 34, 159-167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretconser.2016.10.002
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of The- ory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383- 417. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00518.x
Fávero, L. P., Belfiore, P., Da Silva, F. L. e Chan, B. L. (2009).
Análise de dados: modelagem multivariada para toma- da de decisões. São Paulo: Campus.
Figini, S., Maggi, M. e Uberti, P. (2018). The market rank in- dicator to detect financial distress. Econometrics and Sta- tistics, 0, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2017.12.001
Figlioli, B., Lemes, S. e Lima, F. G. (2017). ifrs, synchro- nicity, and financial crisis: The dynamics of accounting information for the Brazilian capital market. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 28(75), 326-343. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x201704450
fmi. (2018). Fundo Monetário Internacional. Recuperado de https://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
Geng, R., Bose, I. e Chen, X. (2015). Prediction of financial distress: An empirical study of listed Chinese companies using data mining. European Journal of Operational Research, 241(1), 236-247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.08.016
Groppelli, A. A. e Nikbakht, E. (2006). Administração fi- nanceira (2a ed.). São Paulo: Saraiva.
Hillegeist, S. A., Keating, E. K., Cram, D. P. e Lunds- tedt, K. G. (2004). Assessing the probability of bankruptcy. Review of Accounting Studies, 9(1), 5-34. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:RAST.0000013627.90884.b7
Inekwe, J. N., Jin, Y. e Valenzuela, M. R. (2018). The effects of financial distress: Evidence from us gdp growth. Economic Modelling, 72, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.01.001
Keasey, K. e Mcguinness, P. (1990). The Failure of Uk industrial firms for the period 1976-1984, logistic analysis and entropy measures. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 17(1), 119-135. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.1990.tb00553.x
Laitinen, E. K. e Suvas, A. (2016). Financial distress pre- diction in an international context: Moderating effects of Hofstede’s original cultural dimensions. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 9, 98-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2015.11.003
Lian, Y. (2017). Financial distress and customer-supplier relationships. Journal of Corporate Finance, 43, 397- 406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.02.006
Medrado, F., Cella, G., Pereira, J. V. e Dantas, J. A. (2016). Relação entre o nível de intangibilidade dos ativos e o valor de mercado das empresas. Re- vista de Contabilidade e Organizações, 28, 33-44. https://doi.org/10.11606/rco.v10i28.119480
Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., Reboredo, J. C. e Nguyen, D. K. (2014). Do global factors impact brics stock markets? A quantile regression approach. Emerging Markets Review, 19, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2014.04.002
Mselmi, N., Lahiani, A. e Hamza, T. (2017). Financial dis- tress prediction: The case of French small and medium- -sized firms. International Review of Financial Analysis, 50, 67-80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.02.004
Neto, J. e Martins, H. (2010). Finanças e governança corpo- rativa. Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier.
Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilis- tic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490395
Pindado, J., Rodrigues, L. e de la Torre, C. (2008). Estimating financial distress likelihood. Jour- nal of Business Research, 61(9), 995-1003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2007.10.006
Póvoa, A. C. S. e Nakamura, W. T. (2014). Homo- geneidade versus heterogeneidade da estrutura de dívida: um estudo com dados em painel. Re- vista Contabilidade & Finanças, 25(64), 19-32. https://doi.org/10.1590/s1519-70772014000100003
Ress, W. P. (1995). Financial analysis. Londres: Prentice- -Hall.
Ross, S. A., Westerfield, R. W. e Jaffe, J. (2002). Administra- ção financeira: corporate finance, Tradução de Antônio Zoratto Sanvicente (2. ed.). São Paulo: Atlas.
Soliman, M. T. (2004). Using Industry-Adjusted Du- pont Analysis to Predict Future Profitability. Ssrn. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.456700
Sun, J. e Li, H. (2012). Financial distress prediction using support vector machines: Ensemble vs. individual. Applied Soft Computing Journal, 12(8), 2254-2265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2012.03.028
Tinoco, M. H. e Wilson, N. (2013). Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables.International Review of Financial Analysis, 30, 394- 419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.02.013
Vuchelen, J. (2003). Electoral systems and the effects of political events on the stock market: The Bel- gian case. Economics and Politics, 15(1), 85-102. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0343.00116
Wanke, P., Barros, C. P. e Faria, J. R. (2015). Financial distress drivers in Brazilian banks: A dynamic slacks approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 240(1), 258- 268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.06.044
Wernke,R.eLembeck,M.(2004).Análisederentabilidadedos segmentos de mercado de empresa distribuidora de mer- cadorias. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 15(35), 68- 83. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1519-70772004000200006
Whitaker, R. B. (1999). The early stages of financial dis- tress. Journal of Economics and Finance, 23(2), 123- 132. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02745946
Wilcox, J. W. (1971). A Simple theory of financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research9(2) 389-395. https://doi.org/10.1080/03056249708704247