Modelo matemático para el control de la transmisión paralela del covid-19 por individuos sintomáticos y asintomáticos
Resumo
Foi desenvolvido um modelo matemático baseado em equações diferenciais ordinárias que descreve a dinâmica do COVID-19 em uma comunidade humana onde os indivíduos infectados podem ou não ser sintomáticos e na qual são implementadas políticas de saúde pública. Com interesse em intervenções, seja por prevenção (como uso de máscaras, higiene das mãos, distanciamento social) ou por tratamento (farmacêutico), investiga-se se o problema de saúde controlável, portanto, a estabilidade e controlabilidade das soluções do modelo com base no número básico de reprodução; em seguida, estabelece-se um critério de cobertura de prevenção com base no número de reprodução do controle, proporcionando diferentes cenários de simulação para essa medida de controle. Os resultados revelaram que a prevenção é eficaz na redução da transmissão, porém, sua eficácia pode ser reduzida por não se saber com certeza a magnitude da transmissão de indivíduos com a infecção mas sem sintomas e o grau de participação daqueles que apresentam tal condição. que possibilitou o reaparecimento de surtos sustentados de COVID-19.
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