La contienda por el mar de la China Meridional: un reflejo de los dilemas económicos y estratégicos del sudeste asiático (2009-2018)
Resumen
La distribución asimétrica del poder en la región marítima asiática favorece cada vez más a China, lo que
aumenta la aprensión de sus vecinos que, ante su evidente vulnerabilidad, temen a las intenciones de Beijing. En este contexto, el equilibrio de poder permite mantener el status quo y limitar el comportamiento de China contra otros países costeros. Dada la disparidad del poder militar y económico entre el sudeste asiático y China, este equilibrio solo se puede lograr mediante la intervención de un poder extrarregional: los Estados Unidos. La renovada participación estadounidense como garante de la seguridad regional ha creado nuevos lazos de dependencia estratégica para el sudeste asiático, que a su vez tienen economías que dependen principalmente de China. El conflicto por el mar de la China Meridional plantea dos dilemas para la región: la creciente influencia económica de China y la política reactiva y desafiante de Washington sobre el Indo-Pacífico, lo que posibilitaría aún más un estancamiento en el conflicto marítimo.
Descargas
Referencias bibliográficas
Acharya, A. & Tan, S. S. (2006). Betwixt balance and community: America, asean, and the security of Southeast Asia. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 6, 37-59.
https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lci125
Albert, E. (2016, October 21). The U.S.-Philippines Defense Alliance. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-philippines-defense-alliance
asean (2018, November 14). asean-China Strategic Partnership Vision 2030. Retrieved from https://asean.org/asean-china-strategic-partnership-vision-2030/
asean Stats (2018). Data Portal. Indicators. Retrieved from https://data.aseanstats.org/
Ba, A. (2003). China and asean. Renavigating relations for a 21st-Century Asia. Asian Survey, 43(4), 622-647.
https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2003.43.4.622
Ba, A. (2016). The South China Sea: Primary contradictions in China-Southeast Asia relations. In Storey, I. & Lin, C-Y. (Eds.), The South China Sea dispute: Navigating diplomatic and strategic tensions (pp. 104-133). Singapore: iseas.
https://doi.org/10.1355/9789814695565-006
Baldwin, R. (1985). Economic Statecraft. Princeton University Press: New Jersey.
Baviera, A. S. P. (2016). The Philippines and the South China Sea dispute: Security interests and perspectives. In Storey, I. & Lin. C-Y. (Eds.), The South China Sea dispute: Navigating diplomatic and strategic tensions (pp. 161-187). Singapore: iseas.
https://doi.org/10.1355/9789814695565-008
Beeson, M. & Li, F. (2011). Charmed or alarmed? Reading China's regional relations. Journal of Contemporary China, 21(73), 35-51.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2012.627664
Blanchard, J-MF. & Ripsman, N. (2013). Economic statecraft and foreign policy. Sanctions, incentives, and target state calculations. Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203098172
Casarini, N. (2018). Southeast Asia's security dilemma. How the West is responding. In China's Belt and Road Initiative (bri) and Southeast Asia (pp. 26-30). Kuala Lumpur: cimb asean Research Institute and lse ideas.
Cho, I. H. & Park, S-H. (2013). The rise of China and varying sentiments in Southeast Asia towards Great Powers. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 7(2), 69-92.
Clinton, H. (2010, July 23). Remarks at the arf Meeting. National Convention Center Hanoi, Vietnam. Retrieved from https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/07/145095.htm
Cruz de Castro, R. (2013). The Obama Administration's strategic pivot to Asia: From a diplomatic to a strategic constrainment of an emergent China? Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 25(3), 331-349.
Cruz de Castro, R. (2015). The Philippines Confronts China in the South China Sea: Power Politics vs. Liberalism-Legalism. Asian perspective, 39(1), 71-100.
https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2015.0010
Cruz de Castro, R. (2016). The Early Duterte Presidency in the Philippines. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 35(3), 139-59.
https://doi.org/10.1177/186810341603500307
Das, S. B. (2018). Do the Economic Ties between asean and China Affect Their Strategic Partnership? Perspectives, 32; 1-14.
Dittmer, L. (2018). China's Asia. Triangular dynamics since the Cold War. London: Rowman & Littlefield.
Emmers, R. (2018). Unpacking asean neutrality: The quest for autonomy and impartiality in Southeast Asia. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 40(3), 349-370.
https://doi.org/10.1355/cs40-3a
Fravel, M. T. (2008). Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China's Territorial Disputes. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400828876
Fravel, M. T. (2011). China's strategy in the South China Sea. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 33(3), 292-319.
https://doi.org/10.1355/cs33-3b
Geducos, A. C. (2018, November 20). Xi pledges to work with asean in completing Code of Conduct in South China Sea in 3 yrs. Manila Bulletin. Retrieved from https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/11/20/xi-pledges-to-work-with-asean-in-completing-code-of-conduct-in-south-china-sea-in-3-yrs/
Gill, B., Goh, E., & Huang, C. (2016). The dynamics of us-China-Southeast Asia relations. United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney. Retrieved from https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/the-dynamics-of-us-china-southeast-asia-relations
Gilpin, R. (2001). Global Political Economy. Understanding the International Economic Order. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831272
Gong, X. (2017). China's economic inducement towards Vietnam: What lies ahead? In Li, M. (Ed.). China's economic statecraft. Co-optation, cooperation and coercion (pp. 65-93). New Jersey: World Scientific.
https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814713474_0003
Ha, H. T. (2019). From Declaration to Code: Continuity and change in China's engagement with asean on the South China Sea. Trends in Southeast Asia, 5.
https://doi.org/10.1355/9789814843546
Hai, D. T. (2017). Vietnam: riding the Chinese tide. The Pacific Review, 31(2), 1-16.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1377282
Hiep, L. H. (2013). Vietnam's hedging strategy against China since normalization. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 35(3), 333-368.
https://doi.org/10.1355/cs35-3b
Hiep, L. H. (2015). Vietnam's Alliance Politics in the South China Sea. Trends of Southeast Asia, 6; 1-27.
Hill, C. (2016). Foreign policy in the twenty-first century. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan. International Trade Center [ITC] (2019). Trade Map. Retrieved from https://www.trademap.org/
Khan, S. & Yu, L. (2013). Evolving China- asean Relations and cafta: Chinese Perspectives on China's Initiatives in Relation to asean Plus 1. European Journal of East Asian Studies, 12, 81-107.
https://doi.org/10.1163/15700615-13120107
Li, M. (2009). Cooperation for competition: China's approach to regional security in East Asia. Panorama, 2; 121-134.
Li, M. (2016). China debates the South China Sea dispute. In Storey, I. & Lin, C-Y. (Eds.), The South China Sea dispute: Navigating diplomatic and strategic tensions (pp. 47-73). Singapore: iseas.
https://doi.org/10.1355/9789814695565-004
Li, M. (2017). China's economic statecraft. Co-optation, cooperation and coercion. New Jersey: World Scientific.
Liang, C. (2017). The rise of China as a constructed narrative: Southeast Asia's response to Asia's power shift. The Pacific Review, 31(3), 279-297.
https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1371209
Lim, S. K. (2017). China's Economic Statecraft in Sino-Southeast Asian Relations and the Security-Economic Nexus. In Li, M. (Ed.), China's economic statecraft. Co-optation, cooperation and coercion (pp. 139-165). New Jersey: World Scientific.
https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814713474_0006
Lye, L. F. & Ha, H. H. (2018, August 31). Vietnam's responses to China's maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea. Perspective, 50. Retrieved from https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2018_50@50.pdf
McDowell, D. (2019). The (Ineffective) Financial statecraft of China's bilateral swap agreements. Development and Change, 50(1), 122-143.
https://doi.org/10.1111/dech.12474
Miks, J. (2012, April 11). China, Philippines in Standoff. The Diplomat. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2012/04/china-philippines-in-standoff/
Nie, W. (2016). Xi Jinping's Foreign Policy Dilemma: One Belt, One Road or the South China Sea? Contemporary Southeast Asia, 38(3), 422-444.
https://doi.org/10.1355/cs38-3c
Parameswaran, P. (2018, October 22). Why the first China-asean maritime exercise matters. The Diplomat. Retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/why-the-first-china-asean-maritime-exercise-matters/
Parra Pérez, A. (2017). Cambio de alianzas en el Mar del Sur de China: retos del nuevo 'status quo'. Instituto Español de Asuntos Estratégicos. Documento de opinión 33. Retrieved from http://www.ieee.es/publicaciones-new/documentos-de-opinion/2017/DIEEEO33-2017.html
People's Daily (2016, July 13). Chinese leaders reject S. China Sea arbitration award. People's Daily. Retrieved from http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0713/c900009085116.html
Permanent Mission of the People's Republic of China to the un (2009, May 7). Note verbal. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/vnm37_09/chn_2009re_vnm.pdf
Permanent Mission of the Republic of Vietnam to the un (2009, May 8). Note no 86. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/vnm37_09/vnm_re_chn_2009re_vnm.pdf
Poh, A. (2017). The Myth of Chinese Sanctions over South China Sea Disputes. The Washington Quarterly, 40(1), 143-165.
https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2017.1302744
Reilly, J. (2013). China's economic statecraft: turning wealth into power. Analysis. Lowy Institute for International Policy. Retrieved from https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/chinas-economic-statecraft-turning-wealth-power
Reuters (2015, October 18). Exclusive Q&A with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-britain-xi-q-a/exclusive-qa-with-chinese-president-xi-jinping-idUSKCN0SC03920151018
Scott, D. (2012) Conflict Irresolution in the South China Sea. Asian Survey, 52(6), 1019-1042.
https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2012.52.6.1019
Southgate, L. & Khoo, N. (2016). Enter the vanguard state: Reinterpreting asean's response to the South China Sea issue. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 3(2), 221-244.
https://doi.org/10.1177/2347797016645454
Storey, I. & Cook, M. (2018, November 29). The Trump Administration and Southeast Asia: America's Asia Policy Crystalizes. Perspective, 77. Retrieved from https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2018_77@50.pdf
Wen, J. (2003, October 8). Promoting peace and prosperity by deepening cooperation in all-round way [Speech]. Seventh China-asean Summit Bali. Retrieved from http://www.chinese-embassy.no/eng/dtxw/t110517.htm
Wigell, M. & Landivar, A. (2018). China's economic statecraft in Latin America: geostrategic implications for the United States. In Wigell, M., Sören, S., & Aaltola, M. (Eds.), Geo-economics and Power Politics in the 21st Century: The Revival of Economic Statecraft (pp. 164-181). Abingdon/New York: Routledge.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9781351172288-12
Xi, J. (2015, November 7). Forging a stronger partnership to enhance prosperity in Asia. [Speech]. National University of Singapore. Retrieved from https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/t1313923.shtml
Yahuda, M. (2013). China's new assertiveness in the South China Sea. Journal of Contemporary China, 22(81), 446-459.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2012.748964
Yang, Y.E. & Liang, W. (2019). Introduction to China's economic statecraft: rising influences, mixed results. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 24(3), 381-385.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-019-09614-1
Yoshimatsu, H. (2017). China, Japan and the South China Sea dispute: Pursuing strategic goals through economic and institutional means. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 4(3), 294-315.
https://doi.org/10.1177/2347797017733821
Zhang, J. (2015). China's new foreign policy under Xi Jinping: towards 'Peaceful Rise 2.0'? Global Change, Peace & Security, 27(1), 5-19.